EBV & Bradford-Hill
“Hello, in a previous thread you mentioned that in adult MS, EBV is found in 99.9% of cases. This struck me as an amazing statistic, then I googled a bit and read that over 95% of the general population also show evidence of EBV infection. Now it seems a bit less amazing…
Can anyone out there help me understand why this small difference is so significant?
Also, how well does the EBV theory fit into Bradford-Hill’s 9 criteria for causation? Thanks”“Regarding Bradford-Hill criteria. I recently gave a talk at the MS Frontiers meeting at Heathrow Airport and concluded my talk with the following slide.”
“EBV ticks between 2 and 6 of Bradford-Hill criteria; it depends on how strong the evidence is and if you are willing to accept the evidence.”
“There is debate on the strength of the EBV-MS association; with a relative risk of between 2 and 3. A low relative risk of developing MS due to EBV is to be expected as it would be a rare manifestation of a common exposure. High relative risks are only found with common manifestations of uncommon or rare exposures.”
“What is essential for causation is experimental evidence. If we prevent (vaccination) or suppress EBV (anti-viral drugs) to we prevent or cure people of MS? These are strategies high-up on our research agenda.”
“In isolation the conclusion slide is difficult to understand. I will therefore make a video and post it on YouTube to explain it in more detail.”
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